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About Polis Exchange

Polis Exchange is a conditional token exchange for private companies. It lets traders take positions on the financial performance of major UK private companies using BULL and BEAR tokens that settle based on filed EBITDA, creating a transparent link between token payouts and verifiable real-world financial data.

What are conditional tokens?

For each company on the exchange, there are two types of conditional tokens: BULL tokens and BEAR tokens. BULL tokens pay out more when the company grows; BEAR tokens pay out more when it underperforms. Tokens are minted in pairs (1 BULL + 1 BEAR) for a combined cost of 2 USDC, and can be freely traded on the order book.

Because BULL + BEAR always equals 2 USDC at settlement, the system is fully collateralised. There is no leverage, no margin, and no liquidations. Your maximum loss is the price you paid for your tokens.

This means you can speculate on, or hedge against, the financial performance of companies like JCB, Pret A Manger, or Selfridges, without those companies being listed on a public exchange.

How settlement works

Each company has an initial EBITDA baseline, set from the most recent filed accounts at the time the market opens. When the company files its next accounts at Companies House, tokens settle to USDC based on the ratio of filed EBITDA to initial EBITDA:

  • BULL payout = clamp(filed EBITDA / initial EBITDA, 0, 2) × mint price
  • BEAR payout = 2 × mint price − BULL payout

The ratio is clamped between 0 and 2, so BULL tokens pay between 0 and 2 USDC, and BEAR tokens pay the complement. If the company doubles its EBITDA (ratio = 2), BULL tokens settle at 2 USDC and BEAR tokens at 0. If the company halves its EBITDA (ratio = 0.5), BULL tokens settle at 0.50 USDC and BEAR tokens at 1.50 USDC.

The mint price is 1 USDC for all markets. Both filed EBITDA and initial EBITDA are in the same currency units (GBP millions or USD millions, depending on the company's reporting currency), so the ratio is currency-neutral.

What if a company goes to zero? If a company is struck off the Companies House register, its EBITDA is treated as zero. BULL tokens settle at 0 (total loss for BULL holders), and BEAR tokens settle at 2 USDC (full payout). If a company files accounts late, settlement is delayed until the filing becomes available.

The 10 pilot companies

The exchange launched with 10 private UK companies spanning manufacturing, retail, food, aviation, media, automotive, and department stores. Each has a registered company number and files accounts with Companies House.

JCBManufacturing

J C Bamford Excavators Ltd

Initial EBITDA: £509.7m

PRETFood & Beverage

Pret A Manger (Europe) Ltd

Initial EBITDA: £92.4m

JLPRetail

John Lewis Partnership Plc

Initial EBITDA: £567m

MRWMRetail

Wm Morrison Supermarkets Ltd

Initial EBITDA: £704m

SKYMedia & Entertainment

Sky UK Limited

Initial EBITDA: £209m

VIRGINTransport & Travel

Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd

Initial EBITDA: £424.2m

EGGRetail

EG Group Limited

Initial EBITDA: $1,361m

ACLKAutomotive

Arnold Clark Automobiles Ltd

Initial EBITDA: £424.6m

CLRKFashion & Apparel

C&J Clark International Ltd

Initial EBITDA: negative

SLFRRetail

Selfridges Retail Ltd

Initial EBITDA: £155.8m

How trading works

  • Mint. Deposit USDC to mint BULL + BEAR token pairs. Each pair costs 2 USDC (1 USDC per token at the mint price). A 0.10% fee applies on the deposited amount.
  • Trade. Buy or sell BULL and BEAR tokens on the order book. Prices float freely between 0 and 2 USDC based on supply and demand. Maker fee: 0%. Taker fee: 0.05% (5 basis points).
  • Redeem. Burn matching BULL + BEAR pairs to recover 2 USDC per pair. No fee. Available any time before settlement.
  • Settle. When the company files its next accounts, tokens settle to USDC based on the filed EBITDA. BULL and BEAR payouts always sum to 2 USDC. No settlement fee.
  • Bounded risk. Your maximum loss is the price you paid for your tokens. No leverage, no margin calls, no liquidations.
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